AI Golf Betting Picks – Part 3 – Sony Open 2025
This is Part 3 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.
Results So Far:
- Starting Bankroll: $100
- Current Bankroll: $95.23 (not including the bets for this week)
- Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/5 if you count all my picks)
- Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/26 if you count all expert picks)
- Last Week’s Picks: The Sentry 2025
Last Week’s Results
Last week our AI picks chose Collin Morikawa and Max Homa. Morikawa stayed in contention from start to finish, however a poor start to his final round all but ruined his chances and left him to finish comfortably in second place behind Matsuyama who set records across the board. Homa, our other pick, continued his inconsistent play ultimately finishing at T26.
We weren’t alone in our picks last week with 3/7 experts also choosing Collin Morikawa and none of them choosing Hideki.
A Glimpse into the 2025 Sony Open Tournament
We’re officially back to a fully staffed tournament effectively lessening our chances to pick the right winner. It’s another notoriously easy course with 4 out of the last 5 years with scores -15 under or better. The biggest difference to last week is a drop from a par 73 down to a par 70.
The course details:
- Course: Waialae Country Club
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Par 70
- Grass Type: Bermuda
- Past Winners: Grayson Murray RIP – 17 (2024), Si Woo Kim -18 (2023), Hideki Matsuyama -23 (2022), Kevin Na -21 (2021), Cameron Smith -11 (2020)
Who The Experts Picked To Win?
After dropping a goose egg, our experts will look to redeem themselves this week. The overwhelming favorites here for the experts are Maverick McNealy with 4 selections followed by Russell Henley with 3 selections. The surprising dark horse that shows up in 2 picks is Taylor Montgomery. Full breakdown of the expert picks down below:
| Source | Writer | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Russell Henley |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Keegan Bradley |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Cam Davis |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Taylor Montgomery |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Maverick McNealy |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Taylor Montgomery |
| Golf Monthly | Matt Cradock | Russell Henley |
| Golf Monthly | Matt Cradock | Andrew Novak |
| Golf Monthly | Jonny Leighfield | Corey Conners |
| Golf Monthly | Jonny Leighfield | Harry Hall |
| Golf Monthly | Barry Plummer | Maverick McNealy |
| Golf Monthly | Barry Plummer | Sepp Straka |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | Russell Henley |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | Maverick McNealy |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Byeong Hun An |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Chris Kirk |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Maverick McNealy |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Keith Mitchell |
Who AI Picked To Win the Sony Open?
Based on the analysis, the AI determined the following players to win weighting their odds based on current form and tournament history. Hideki is a safe choice here after setting records at the Sentry and winning this event before. He could become the third player and first since Justin Thomas in 2017 to go back to back at The Sentry and Sony Open. Other picks Conners finished T5 and Bradley T15 last week with strong course history here in Hawaii.
- Hideki Matsuyama: 15%
- Corey Conners: 12%
- Keegan Bradley: 10%
Then when factoring in the Kelly Criterion to place Hideki earned a $1.87 bet, Conners at $1.40 and Keegan receiving $1.73. The bets and payouts can be seen below.
