AI Golf Betting – Part 2 – The Sentry 2025
This is Part 2 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.
Results So Far:
- Starting Bankroll: $100
- Current Bankroll: $100.23 (not including the bets for this week)
- Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/3 if you count all my picks)
- Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/10 if you count all expert picks)
- Last Week’s Picks: Hero World Challenge 2024
A Glimpse into the 2025 The Sentry Tournament
I started this experiment at an odd time with the Hero World Challenge and then a few week waiting period before the true season start at The Sentry. The first attempt proved to be a success in the fact I won a whopping $0.23 which I’d normally take a no loss any week for golf betting, but considering it was a 20 player field it was not surprising to come out ahead.
Back to the tournament at hand, this is a limited field capped at 60 players comprised of all tournament winners from 2024 as well as the top 50 in last season’s FedEx Cup standings. With such a small field there's fortunately no cut line to worry about, but this also doesn’t allow for a full on test of our man vs machine betting challenge.
The course details:
- Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
- Location: Kapalua, Hawaii
- Par 73
- Grass Type: Celebration Bermuda
- Past Winners: Chris Kirk -29 (2024), Jon Rahm -27 (2023), Cameron Smith (2022), Harris English (2021), Justin Thomas -20 (2020)
Who The Experts Picked To Win?
The popular picks this week for the experts look to be Colin Morikawa leading the wat followed by Justin Thomas, Akshay Bhatia and Sahith Theegala. Personally I’m hoping Barry Plummer is on the right track given AI’s picks for this week matching his.
| Source | Writer | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Colin Morikawa |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Akshay Bhatia |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Max Greyserman |
| Golf Week | Riley Hamel | Jake Knapp |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Justin Thomas |
| Golf Monthly | Elliot Heath | Akshay Bhatia |
| Golf Monthly | Barry Plummer | Collin Morikawa |
| Golf Monthly | Barry Plummer | Max Homa |
| Golf Monthly | Paul Higham | Collin Morikawa |
| Golf Monthly | Paul Higham | Sahith Theegala |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | Akshay Bhatia |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Will Gray | J.T. Poston |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Justin Thomas |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Ben Everill | Sahith Theegala |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Ludvig Aberg |
| PGA Tour Golfbets | Chris Breece | Nico Echavarria |
Who I Picked To Win?
Based on the analysis, the AI determined the following players to win which is not surprising for Xander and Colin given they have the best odds. However, Max Homa who can be considered a long shot at +4500 to win entered the top 3 to win.
- Xander Schauffele – 25% chance to win
- Colin Morikawa – 20% chance to win
- Max Homa – 15% chance to win
Then when factoring in the Kelly Criterion to place the bet, Xander was completely removed meaning the $5 bet was split between Colin Morikawa and Max Homa. Morikawa is receiving $2.92 of the bet and Homa is receiving the remaining $2.08.
Assuming Scottie Scheffler didn’t get hurt, he would have been the most likely pick to win. With him out for the next few weeks, Xander will likely be the player to beat over the next few tournaments. I’m very curious to see how this weeks plays out given the surprising Max Homa pick. I’d have assumed the AI would always err on the side of caution and pick the best odds each week