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random thoughts and personal experiments

This is Part 9 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $86.73 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 2 (2/23 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 3 (2/87 if you count all unique expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: Mexico Open at VidantaWorld 2025

Last Week’s Results

Last week our picks fell short with AI picking a trio of long shots to win the tournament. Molinari was our best ending the first round in the top 10, but eventually fizzled out while the rest of the field stayed hot. Will Gray of PGA Tour GolfBets had the closest pick with Aldrich Potgieter who had a wide lead between the third and fourth round before losing in a playoff to Campbell

A Glimpse into the 2025 Cognizant Classic

We’re now taking the trip down to the Southeast which begins the Florida swing at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens. Winds tend to be the toughest challenge this week as players take on the bear trap.

The course details:

  • Course: Palm Beach National
  • Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
  • Par 72
  • Grass Type: TifEagle greens
  • Past Winners: Austin Eckroat -17 (2024), Chris Kirk -14 (2023), Sepp Straka -10 (2022)

Who The Experts Picked To Win?

TBD

Who A(I) Picked To Win?

The AI has gone back to it’s comfort zone after experimenting with some dark horse picks last week in Mexico. The picks this week of Russell Henley, Sepp Straka and Shane Lowry are the top 3 in odds but I will say they’re all solid picks to win this week. The biggest difference this week is the AI is a lot more tame on their probability to win.

AI determined win probability:

  1. Shane Lowry: Win Probability: 10%

  2. Russell Henley: Win Probability: 9%

  3. Sepp Straka: Win Probability: 8%

AI bet distribution for $5:

  1. Shane Lowry: Proportional Bet = 2 units

  2. Russell Henley: Proportional Bet = 1.62 units

  3. Sepp Straka: Proportional Bet = 1.38 units

This is Part 8 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $91.73 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 2 (2/20 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 2 (2/75 if you count all unique expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: Genesis Invitational 2025
Read more...

This is Part 7 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $94.73 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 2 (2/17 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/63 if you count all unique expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2025
Read more...

This is Part 6 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $80.23 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/14 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/53 if you count all unique expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: Farmers Insurance Open 2025
Read more...

This is Part 5 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $85.23 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/11 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/42 if you count all unique expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: The American Express 2025
Read more...

This is Part 4 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $90.23 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/8 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/27 if you count all unique expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: Sony Open 2025
Read more...

This is Part 3 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $95.23 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/5 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/26 if you count all expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: The Sentry 2025
Read more...

In this series of indie hacking recaps I’ll give an overview of what I was able to contribute to my side hustles throughout the previous month and the impact that it has had on the websites. As of right now I have two projects live, a skin care aging tool and a token calculator for OpenAI API.

Read more...

This is Part 2 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $100.23 (not including the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: 1 (1/3 if you count all my picks)
  • Expert Winners Picked: 1 (1/10 if you count all expert picks)
  • Last Week’s Picks: Hero World Challenge 2024
Read more...

This is Part 1 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

  • Starting Bankroll: $100
  • Current Bankroll: $95 (includes the bets for this week)
  • Outright Winners Picked: N/A
  • Expert Winners Picked: N/A
Read more...

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