AI Golf Betting Picks – Part 8 – Mexico Open at VidantaWorld 2025

February 20, 2025

This is Part 8 of my AI PGA Tour golf betting series. In this experiment I have started with a $100 bankroll and I plan to bet $5 each week using the Kelly Criteria to distribute the $5 most effectively across my picks. I have a prompt built to have AI do research on the tournament and pick 3 players to win. If my bankroll grows I will add $2.50 to my weekly bets for every $50 additional in my bankroll. However, if I run out of funds I will end this experiment so at worst I will have this for 20 events.

Results So Far:

Starting Bankroll: $100
Current Bankroll: $91.73 (not including the bets for this week)
Outright Winners Picked: 2 (2/20 if you count all my picks)
Expert Winners Picked: 2 (2/75 if you count all unique expert picks)
Last Week’s Picks: Genesis Invitational 2025

Last Week’s Results

Last week our picks fell short after the AI decided to pick the top 3 players in terms of odds for the week. Scottie Scheffler hung in there even with some bad putting, Morikawa faded early and Rory could not make a move on Saturday and fizzled out Sunday. Fortunately I had a no sweat bet last week which saved me a little bit of cash. Thanks MGM!

However for the experts they had a great week with two of them, Ben Everill and Matthew Cradock, selecting Ludvig Aberg who won the tournament. This put the experts back into a tie with AI on choosing winners.

A Glimpse into the 2025 Mexico Open at VidantaWorld

We’re going south of the border this week for Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. A notoriously easy course where most of the top players take the week off giving opportunity to some lesser know names to get a win.

The course details:

Course: Vidanta Vallarta
Location: Vallarta, MX
Par 71
Grass Type: Paspalum
Past Winners: Jake Knapp -19 (2024), Tony Finau -24 (2023), John Rahm -17 (2022)

Who The Experts Picked To Win?

This week brings more variety in player selections than usual for the experts. The only player picked twice by the experts is Jake Knapp who won the tournament last year. He has not been playing great as of late, but the Hojgaard brothers and the Rai picks I like.

<thead>

    <tr>

        <th>Source</th>

        <th>Writer</th>

        <th>Pick</th>

    </tr>

</thead>

<tbody>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Week</td>

        <td>Riley Hamel</td>

        <td>Akshay Bhatia</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Week</td>

        <td>Riley Hamel</td>

        <td>Aaron Rai</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Monthly</td>

        <td>Elliot Heath</td>

        <td>Patrick Rodgers</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Monthly</td>

        <td>Elliot Heath</td>

        <td>Matt Wallace</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Monthly</td>

        <td>Matt Cradock</td>

        <td>Sam Stevens</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Monthly</td>

        <td>Matt Cradock</td>

        <td>Vincent Norrman</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Monthly</td>

        <td>Jonny Leighfield</td>

        <td>Rasmus Hojgaard</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>Golf Monthly</td>

        <td>Jonny Leighfield</td>

        <td>Jake Knapp</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>PGA Tour Golfbets</td>

        <td>Will Gray</td>

        <td>Justin Lower</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>PGA Tour Golfbets</td>

        <td>Will Gray</td>

        <td>Aldrich Potgieter</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>PGA Tour Golfbets</td>

        <td>Ben Everill</td>

        <td>Alex Smalley</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>PGA Tour Golfbets</td>

        <td>Ben Everill</td>

        <td>Jake Knapp</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>PGA Tour Golfbets</td>

        <td>Chris Breece</td>

        <td>Alex Smalley</td>

    </tr>

    <tr>

        <td>PGA Tour Golfbets</td>

        <td>Chris Breece</td>

        <td>Nicolai Højgaard</td>

    </tr>

</tbody>

Who A(I) Picked To Win?

I thought last week was AI’s toughest week to pick but after battling some hallucinations and finally getting it to pick players in the actual field it landed on a very interesting mix of players. The three players decided on are Francesco Molinari (+30000), Patton Kizzire (+12500), and Riley Lewis (+100000) who I have never heard of before. What’s even more shocking is the win probability AI assigned to these players given their absurd odds. If any of these players somehow win it will bump us up significantly from our $5 weekly spend budget and I’d be in complete shock.

AI determined win probability:

Francesco Molinari: Win Probability: 40%
Patton Kizzire: Win Probability: 35%
Riley Lewis: Win Probability: 25%

AI bet distribution for $5:

Francesco Molinari: Proportional Bet = 2 units
Patton Kizzire: Proportional Bet = 1.75 units
Riley Lewis: Proportional Bet = 1.25 units